Soaring jet fuel prices and the threat to supplies – amid the Middle East war – has left millions of Brits worrying about whether their summer holiday plans will be disrupted
May could mark the peak in flights being axed due to the Iran war, an expert has declared.
Families were urged not to panic about their summer getaway, despite fears over jet fuel shortages. Data shows airlines have cut 13,000 flights globally this month due to the conflict in the Middle East. In total, nearly two million seats have been removed from flights scheduled for May.
The reductions come ahead of the half-term holidays at the end of the month. Many people have been left worrying what will happen to holiday flights already booked over the peak months ahead.
Aviation analyst John Strickland insisted the 13,000 flights pulled this month amount to about 1% or 2% of all those scheduled. And he warned against assuming the same number – or more – would be impacted in the coming months.
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“You can’t judge May against the peak summer,” Mr Strickland told the Mirror. “Airlines want to fly their full programme – this is not a wholesale chopping of flights that would disrupt people’s summer holiday plans.”
Mr Strickland said airlines were “relatively confident” they will have enough jet fuel available on a rolling six-week basis, with signs that additional supplies are being sourced from the US and elsewhere to replace those lost from the Gulf.
Some carriers have switched to smaller aircraft or more fuel efficient planes to brace themselves for possible disruption, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. It says 120 scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have so far been cancelled in May. While it is still early days, the number of cancellations in June stands at 36, out of just under 22,000 scheduled flights.
It comes after the price of jet fuel doubled in the wake of the US-Israel war with Iran which erupted at the end of February. The conflict has crippled shipments through the key Strait of Hormuz.
German airline Lufthansa has axed 20,000 flights, and warned higher jet fuel prices could cost it £1.5billion this year. It joined around two dozen airlines that have now scaled back operations.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at the start of April his airline may be forced to cancel 10% of its flights this summer. He told ITV News: “We’re all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June and July.”
British Airways owner IAG is due to issue updated results on Friday.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was confident most people travelling this summer would have a similar experience to last year. She said there was currently no disruption to the supply of jet fuel, but “this clearly is an evolving situation”.
Oil prices slumped to two-week lows on Wednesday amid reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal. Brent crude fell 7% to $102 a barrel – down a recent peak of more than $120 but still well above the $60 before the war started.
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said: “It is understandable that holidaymakers are feeling apprehensive about their summer travel plans due to the wave of cancellations.
“The percentage of flights cancelled from the UK remains small, when you consider that the worst airlines cancel over 2% of flights less than a day before departure, even in normal times.
“Our advice for this summer is to book a package holiday, as that is the best way to protect the full cost of your holiday should greater disruption occur.”
Mark Tanzer, chief executive of travel trade body ABTA, said: “We really don’t want people worrying about their holidays; planes are taking off daily and people are continuing to get away on their holidays.
“The Government and airlines are clear that there isn’t a problem with fuel supply. If you have a holiday booked in for the coming months – including the May half term – we expect it to go ahead as planned.
“Whilst there have been reports about cancellations globally, these amount to less than one percent of overall flights.”
