A new report by think-tank British Future points out that net migration has fallen massively, but most voters think it is going up – and accused Nigel Farage of false claims
Nigel Farage has been accused of spreading misinformation about immigration, with alarming data showing the public wrongly believe it is rising.
Politicians have been blamed for skewing the public’s understanding of immigration levels – with Mr Farage accused of trying to undermine the falling number of people arriving.
New research reveals 49% of people believe net migration – the difference between people settling in and leaving the UK – rose in the past year.
In fact it saw a sharp decline, dropping from 900,000 in 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025. But despite the figure being projected to fall below 100,000 by the end of this year, most people expect it to rise.
A report by think-tank British Future claims Mr Farage made false claims about Brits leaving to try and explain the drop. Director Sunder Katwala said: “A massive perception gap is shaping not just the immigration debate but British politics more broadly.
Politicians need to take responsibility for this. It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.”
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He called on ministers to publish a yearly immigration plan, stating: “That kind of accountability could take some of the heat out of our immigration debate – and keep the public better informed, too.”
The report claims Reform reacted to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showing plummeting net migration by making false claims. It says: “Reform UK has an immigration policy targeting ‘net zero’ immigration but reacted to the November 2025 ONS figures by seeking to undermine the data, with Nigel Farage falsely claiming that the fall in net migration was largely driven by British emigration.”
It said a 440,000 annual reduction in net migration was due to a 400,000 fall in new arrivals. But it said Reform is the most trusted party among immigration-sceptics.
The annual Immigration Attitudes Tracker found just 16% of the public correctly think net migration – which includes legal and illegal migration – fell last year. And most believe asylum makes up a third of all immigration, when the true figure is 9%. More than half of immigration into the UK is for study, while nearly a third is for work.
The data showed people who want immigration to fall are most likely to wrongly think it is rising. But just 15% of them think it will actually be achieved in the next year.
The survey of more than 3,000 adults also found most people thinks immigration for study accounts for around a quarter of people coming to live in the UK. In reality it is 52%.
And they also underestimate the proportion coming to the UK to work, which is 31%. The report states: “There is a clear correlation between misperception of net migration numbers and immigration attitudes, including support for reductions and for the political parties promising them.
“Those who feel most negatively about immigration are most likely to mistakenly believe that it increased over the last year and will increase again next year.” The Mirror has contacted Reform UK for comment.
