There are growing fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is vital to the food industry. Chicken and pork are among the items which could be in short supply
Shoppers in the UK could face shortages of some supermarket items over the coming months if the Middle East conflict continues, a secret government analysis has found.
Currently the key oil trade waterway the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran and blockaded by the United States Navy, which is turning Iran’s shipping back. Latest talks on a peace deal have fallen through and the April 8 two week ceasefire ends on April 22 with the possibility hostilities will start again.
There are also increasing fears Iran’s proxy force the Houthis in Yemen could become involved and help further block shipping with attempts to do so on the Baba al-Mandeb straight. This is a strategic link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Most exports of petroleum and natural gas from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline pass through both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
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There are growing fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is vital to the food industry. Chicken and pork are among the items which could be in short supply, it has ben suggested.
While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials have suggested that the variety of products available in shops could be affected.
The Times reported that senior officials, including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence, have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”. The scenario prepped for the session was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.
The farming and hospitality industries are likely to be hit earliest and hardest because CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food. Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Government insiders stressed that the reasonable worst-case scenario was not a prediction, but a part of normal Whitehall planning.
A government spokesman said: “We took decisive action last month to shore up the UK’s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.
“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”
