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Trump threatens big Tuesday Iran strikes over Strait deadline. (0:17) Markets brace for hotter inflation. (1:50) Payrolls crush expectations. (2:51)
The following is an abridged transcript:
President Donald Trump intensified his rhetoric toward Iran, threatening major infrastructure strikes if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened under a 48-hour deadline he set Saturday morning.
On Sunday, Trump posted: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F—–n’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
The not-safe-for-work message — notable for its tone, explicit language, and invocation of Allah on Easter — triggered an immediate uproar across social media.
The post followed one a day earlier in which Trump warned that “all hell” would rain down if the Strait was not reopened.
Later Sunday, in a phone interview with Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst, Trump said negotiations with Iranian officials remain active. But if “they don’t make a deal and fast,” he is “considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil,” according to Yingst’s account.
Prediction markets showed limited movement following the comments.
On Kalshi, the odds of traffic in the Strait returning to normal by May 15 held around 14%, roughly unchanged. Odds of reopening by June 1 rose to 30%, up 7 percentage points.
On Polymarket, the probability of the conflict ending by May 15 ticked up to 28% from 25%, while odds of resolution by June 30 slipped to 55% from 60%.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ members are preparing to approve a modest increase in May oil (USO) (BNO) production targets despite the disruption to flows.
Bloomberg reports that key producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are expected to back a plan to raise quotas by roughly 206K bpd during a virtual meeting.
On the economic front, this week is all about inflation.
On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — arrives alongside consumption data. But February’s numbers may already feel dated given the recent energy surge. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.4% M/M, with the annual rate edging down to 3%.
Friday’s March CPI report will be more closely watched for the early impact of higher oil prices.
Headline CPI is forecast to jump 1% M/M, pushing the annual rate up to 3.4% from 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is seen rising 0.3% on the month, with the annual rate ticking up to 2.7% from 2.5%.
While core CPI excludes energy directly, higher oil prices can filter through other components — such as airfare — as airlines adjust to rising jet fuel costs.
SA analyst Damir Tokic says if the war drags on, “inflation expectations are likely to de-anchor as inflation becomes more persistent, at which point the Fed will need to start hiking.”
Investors will also get their first full trading reaction to Friday’s March jobs report, released during the market holiday.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 178K, more than triple the 51K consensus estimate. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted solid hiring across several industries, but warned that slowing wage growth could “hurt many workers.”
Delta Air Lines (DAL) headlines a thin calendar, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.60 on revenue of about $14.9B. The carrier raised its Q1 revenue outlook in March, citing healthy demand.
SA analyst Tim Dunn notes Delta’s Trainer refinery could save as much as $1B relative to peers amid elevated crack spreads and geopolitical risk.
Investors will also be listening for commentary on TSA staffing pressures during the government shutdown.
Also on the calendar:
Levi Strauss (LEVI) reports Tuesday. Constellation Brands (STZ) and Applied Digital (APLD) join Delta on Wednesday. BlackBerry (BB) weighs in Thursday.
And for income investors, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) goes ex-dividend Monday, with payment scheduled for April 30.
The Gap (GAP) goes ex-dividend Wednesday, paying April 29.
AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) go ex-dividend Friday. Both pay May 1.
