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June’s employment numbers hit Thursday. (0:17) Nike earnings: cheap stock or still a Sell? (1:13) Middle East tensions rise as hostilities around Iran escalate again. (1:58)
The following is an abridged transcript:
It’s another holiday-shortened week with Independence Day observed on Friday, but traders will still get the all-important jobs report.
The June employment report will be released on Thursday before the opening bell.
After May’s strong gain, another solid reading could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy to get a better handle on wage inflation.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110K, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and average hourly earnings increasing 0.3%.
Wells Fargo economists say recent data suggest labor demand is holding roughly steady rather than re-accelerating in a meaningful way.
“Even with some recent firmness in headline payroll gains, the broader picture remains one of a labor market near balance, with neither labor demand nor wage pressures signaling a return to overheating,” they said.
Pantheon Macro notes that the “trend in initial and continuing claims appears to have picked up since the start of May, consistent with payroll growth slowing back below the break-even pace.”
It’s still a quiet week for earnings, but Nike (NKE) headlines the calendar on Tuesday.
This past week, Evercore downgraded Nike to In-Line from Outperform, saying that roughly two years into the turnaround there are fresh resets lower in the wholesale channel, limited needle-moving innovation in the 2027 pipeline and near-term execution issues.
SA analyst Justin Purohit, who rates the stock a Buy, says “current pricing presents an attractive opportunity for long-term investors.”
But Ten Cent Capital argues that while “a relief rally is possible if Q4 beats low expectations, the competitive landscape and structural challenges suggest the era of premium multiples may be over.”
Also on the earnings calendar:
Constellation Brands (STZ) joins Nike on Tuesday.
FactSet (FDS) and General Mills (GIS) report on Wednesday.
In the news this weekend
Hostilities in and around Iran are escalating again, testing the fragile ceasefire that had been intended to end months of fighting.
U.S. forces struck Iranian communications, air-defense, drone-storage and mine-laying facilities after what Washington described as an attack on an oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Prediction-market odds of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal in the near term also fell sharply.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to allow Anthropic (ANTHRO) to restore access to its latest AI model, Fable 5, as early as next week, according to Axios.
On Friday, Anthropic said it will soon allow trusted companies and government partners to use Mythos 5, which, along with Fable 5, was disabled earlier this month following a government directive.
For income investors, Mondelez (MDLZ) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday and will pay its dividend on July 14.
Comcast (CMCSA) goes ex-dividend on Wednesday, with its payout set for July 22.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Sysco (SYY) both go ex-dividend on Thursday.
Bristol-Myers will pay shareholders on August 3, while Sysco’s payout is scheduled for July 24.
