A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is likely this month, weather experts have said – the phenomenon caused the fatal and disruptive Beast from the East in March 2018
The weather phenomenon once responsible for the infamous ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018 could be triggered this month, weather experts have said.
The Met Office says the forecast for this month indicates an increased confidence in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) by mid-March. The SSW is what caused the Beast from the East in March seven years ago, as 17 people lost their lives amid heavy snow, ice and strong winds.
The Met Office explained: “This phenomenon is characterised by a reversal of winds, the stratosphere polar vortex, high up in the stratosphere. These winds are currently weakening rapidly.” It added: “An SSW can result in a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, and the UK, which can lead to a period of cold, dry weather.
“However, this is not always the case, and it’s important to note that not all SSW events are followed by severe weather. More details on the intensity of surface weather effects from this event will be available in our weather forecasts.”
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “There is now over 80 percent chance of a SSW occurring by the middle of the month, this could lead to some impacts on weather in the UK toward the end of March. What those impacts might be will become clearer nearer the time.”
The possible cold snap will mark a big change for Brits basking in warmer temperatures over the last week. The UK recorded the warmest day of the year twice this weekend, with temperatures reaching almost 20C in parts of the country.
The Met Office confirmed a record 19.7C was hit in Crosby, Merseyside, on Sunday, beating Saturday’s peak of 19.1C in Cumbria. Parts of the UK have been warmer than holiday hotspots including the Balearic islands and Costa del Sol.
But this is likely to change, experts said. The Met Office explained that we will begin to see a “spell of rain will move south across the country” from Monday, with “ a few wintry showers” in the north and northeast.
The weather service added: “By Tuesday, we’ll start to see temperatures drop to below average across the UK. Rural spots in Scotland could see -4C on Tuesday night, with a daytime maximum temperatures typically between 5-8°C.”
Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Chris Bulmer explains: “A frontal zone will move south across the UK during Sunday night and Monday with much colder air following from the north. With these cold northeasterly winds, we are likely to see some wintry showers across the north and the east of the UK next week, but any accumulations of snow are likely to be largely restricted to hills. We’ll also see a return to overnight frosts in many areas.
“While there is uncertainty in the extent of rain and wintry showers through the middle of next week, there is higher confidence that below average temperatures will continue through the week, bringing a very different feel to the mild weather over the weekend.“
