The ECMWF weather model shows UK temperatures could soon surge above 30C again, as Met Office forecasters say ‘hot’ conditions are on the cards for some
Temperatures in the UK could surge to 32C in a matter of days, advanced weather forecasting maps show.
The mercury has returned to normal levels this week following a scorching May heatwave which saw temperatures rise above 35C – the hottest they have ever been in May. There have even been thunderstorms and heavy rain across the country – but it appears now that balmy conditions are right around the corner again.
The ECMWF weather model shows temperatures should start rising again from June 15, when highs of 29C are possible in the south-east. The mercury could rise to 28C in the north-west, the data suggests, with central Scotland possibly seeing 24C highs.
Maximum possible temperature maps show another surge on June 16, with 32C on the cards in the south-east of England. The data shows 29C-30C highs are possible in the north of England too, while 31C is possible in the east of England and South Yorkshire.
Temperature anomaly maps for June 16 show areas of deep red right across England, Wales and southern Scotland. This indicates where temperatures are expected to rise well above the seasonal average.
In total, the ECMWF model data suggests as many as 21 counties could see temperatures rise to 30C or higher during this period. They are all in England.
UK counties facing 30C or more
- Yorkshire
- Nottinghamshire
- Derbyshire
- Cheshire
- Shropshire
- Lincolnshire
- Staffordshire
- Cambridgeshire
- Norfolk
- Suffolk
- Northamptonshire
- Worcestershire
- Warwickshire
- Gloucestershire
- Buckinghamshire
- Bedfordshire
- Hertfordshire
- Essex
- Surrey
- Kent
- Berkshire
Is the UK facing another heatwave?
An official heatwave is declared in the UK when temperatures hit the heatwave threshold, which varies from 25C to 28C depending on the county, for three consecutive days. Thus, this latest data from the ECMWF model doesn’t yet suggest another official heatwave is on the way.
Met Office weather forecast for June
The Met Office’s forecast for June 7 to 16 says “high pressure and more settled conditions” should take hold towards the middle of the month, particularly in southern areas.
For the rest of June, the Met Office anticipates temperatures being “above normal” for the most part. While “it may also become hot in parts of the south”, the national weather agency says “heavy showers and thunderstorms” are also possible.