A new study says predicted that a fall in the number of children in England over the next decade would be the most dramatic since the 1980s and could prompt school closures and teacher job losses
The number of children in the UK is forecast to slump by 800,000 over the next decade – potentially prompting school closures and teacher job losses, a report has revealed.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says falling fertility rates herald a “dramatic reshape the make-up of the UK population”. One of the areas impacted will be education and government budgets, it predicted.
Looking back, the IFS says that following the post-war baby boom, fertility levels started to fall significantly from the 1960s onwards, leading to a big drop in the number of school kids in the 1970s and 1980s. The next time there was a large decline was during the 2000s. it added. The same is happening now, it says, with the number of children in the UK expected to decline by about 7%, or 800,000, between now and 2035.
Primary school numbers are falling fastest in Wales, Scotland and London. Between 2016 and 2025, primary pupil numbers dropped by 3% in Scotland, 4% in Wales and 9% in London, as compared with a 1% fall across the whole of England.
Some local areas are facing particularly large drops, the IFS report found, including a 9% to 10% slump in the Gwynedd, Wrexham and Flintshire areas of North Wales. In London, pupil number in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Lambeth, Southwark and Westminster have crashed by 15% or more over the past decade.
Children aged 15 and under made up about 25% of the population in the early 1970s in England, Scotland and Wales, but this is expected to shrink to just 15% by 2035. They have been replaced by a growing number of over 65s, with the added cost in terms of state pension payments and the NHS. On the flipside, falling pupil numbers could reduce the cost of state school provision, says the IFS.
The decline in child numbers over the next decade is expected to be greater in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than in England. “However, the falls in England represent an abrupt change, as they represent the first significant drop in the number of children in England since the 1980s,” the IFS said.
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at IFS and author of the report, said: “Falls in the number of children will dramatically reshape the make-up of the UK population. That will have big implications for the education sector. Policymakers will have to decide how to respond – will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes?
“In practice, previous governments have gone for a mix of policies, which were often shaped by the economic and fiscal situation of the time. While closing a school can be problematic for local communities, maintaining school numbers as they are might not be the best thing for pupils either. With a dramatic fall in pupil numbers, some schools might struggle to offer a full breadth of curriculum options.’
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “Education policymakers can use the decline in the number of children in UK schools as an opportunity to improve teaching and learning quality. Achieving this will require careful decisions about teacher recruitment and retention, as well as managing the possibility of school closures.”
