The ongoing partial government shutdown prevented the Labor Department from releasing the anticipated September jobs report as scheduled on Friday, causing economic data watchers to turn their attention to alternative sources to gauge labor market conditions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report was expected to show the economy added 50,000 jobs in September, according to economists polled by LSEG.
That would continue the trend of soft jobs reports in recent months, with August’s initial print at 22,000 jobs, while the first revision of July’s jobs data showed a gain of 79,000 jobs and the final June revision found a loss of 13,000 jobs in that month.
A labor market measurement tool developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago provides a real-time forecast of the unemployment rate, as well as tracking hiring rates for unemployed workers and the rate of layoffs or other separations.
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The Chicago Fed’s Labor Market Indicators report released Thursday forecasted the real-time unemployment rate would tick slightly higher for September, rising to 4.34% from the 4.32% reading last month and the 4.09% reading in September 2024.
Economists polled by LSEG also estimated the unemployment rate would be essentially flat in September at 4.3%.
The Chicago Fed’s tool estimated the hiring rate for unemployed workers ticked down slightly in September, declining to 45.22% last month from the 45.61% reading in August. It also estimated the layoffs and separations rate ticked slightly higher to 2.10% – up from 2.09% in August and 2.06% last September.
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It’s unclear when the government shutdown will end, although the BLS will likely publish the September jobs report relatively soon after its conclusion based on past instances in which the jobs report was delayed due to a government shutdown.
Such a scenario played out in 2013, when a government shutdown prevented the release of that year’s September jobs report. Initially scheduled for publication on Oct. 4 of that year, it was ultimately released on Oct. 22, 2013, less than a week after the shutdown ended with funding restored on Oct. 17.
A similar delay occurred in early 1996, when the December 1995 jobs report was supposed to be released in early January but was delayed until the middle of the month because of a shutdown.
During the last partial government shutdown in the winter of 2018-19 that lasted more than a month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was funded under a previously-enacted appropriations bill and didn’t have to delay a jobs report.
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Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center, told FOX Business that NFIB’s survey of small businesses that are members of the National Federation of Independent Businesses found that 32% of small business owners reported they had job openings they couldn’t fill.
Of the respondents, 28% said the job openings were for skilled workers, while 13% have openings for unskilled labor. Additionally, a seasonally adjusted net 16% of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months – up a point from August and the fourth straight monthly increase.
“The labor market has been a challenge for a lot of small business owners over the last number of years,” Wade said. “It continues to be a challenge for some small business owners going forward,” she explained, adding that overall, most small business owners said they’re doing well in NFIB’s broader report from August which suggests there “don’t appear to be any hints of moving into recession.”
Wade noted that NFIB has observed a “jobless recovery” in its data, explaining that while some small businesses are unable to find qualified applicants for open roles there are also “other business owners who have kind of satisfied their level of workforce… or they’re uncertain about economic conditions going forward and are a bit more hesitant about expanding their workforce and waiting on the sidelines to see where the economy moves from here.”
