JP Morgan map shows when final Gulf oil shipments will arrive in the UK, with diesel and petrol prices surging 27% since Iran’s blockade began
A map produced by investment bank JP Morgan illustrates when final shipments of Gulf oil will reach destinations across the globe, with the UK expecting its last delivery as early as next week.
Alongside much of Europe, the map indicates that the ‘most deliveries’ to the nation will cease on April 10. Other destinations are set to have their supplies cut off sooner, with regions across Asia and parts of Africa being shut out from April 1.
In the US, deliveries are expected to end on April 15, according to the map. It is reported that owing to the country’s substantial domestic oil output, shortages are considered unlikely.
Across Europe, supply shortages are also deemed improbable, though motorists are expected to feel the pinch through further price hikes.
JP Morgan analysts noted that the global oil system is ‘shifting from a flow shock to a stock depletion problem’, meaning existing reserves are being steadily drained.
The map shows the last tanker departing the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, the day hostilities commenced, with traffic largely grinding to a halt thereafter.
“The global system is shifting from a flow shock to a stock depletion problems, where timing, not just volumes, drives the impact,” analysts said.
The crisis has driven up prices and triggered economic uncertainty across the world.
Sir Keir Starmer has summoned senior figures from the energy, shipping and banking sectors to Number 10 to address Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Senior figures from companies including Shell and BP, shipping giant Maersk, maritime insurance specialist Lloyd’s of London and banks HSBC and Goldman Sachs were briefed that the Government is developing a “viable plan” for the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, surged more than 3 per cent to 117 dollars a barrel at one point during Monday morning trading, hitting levels unseen since 2022.
Diesel prices have also rocketed to their highest since December 2022, with the average cost of a litre at UK forecourts on Monday reaching 181.2p, according to RAC analysis.
This represents a 27 per cent increase since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
Average petrol prices have climbed to 152.0p per litre, a 14 per cent rise from 132.8p since 28 February.
