The longest government shutdown in history has impacted the release of several key economic reports, including October inflation numbers that were due to be released on Thursday, leading to an increased focus on other gauges like those operated by the Federal Reserve.
The Labor Department was scheduled to release the October consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday, but the report is delayed, and it’s uncertain when or if the report will be released.
While the official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unavailable, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has a “nowcast” that estimates present inflation levels for both CPI and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast estimate as of Wednesday was that CPI increased 0.18% on a monthly basis in October, while core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – was up 0.25% for the month.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DELAYS OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS: WHEN WILL ECONOMIC REPORTS BE RELEASED AFTER SHUTDOWN ENDS?
On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 2.96% in October while core CPI rose 2.99%, according to the Cleveland Fed nowcast.
Over the last several years, inflation has fallen from a 40-year high of 9.1% reached in June 2022. However, inflation has risen in the last several months after reaching a recent low of 2.3% in April 2025 and remains well above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
The last official CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was published last month and showed both headline and core CPI up 3% in September compared with last year.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BLOCKS KEY GDP DATA RELEASE – WHAT DO THE FED’S MODELS SAY ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH?
The release of the September CPI report occurred in the midst of the shutdown because BLS workers were temporarily recalled to complete the report, as it’s part of the formula that computes the annual Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA).
It’s unclear when or if the BLS will release the October CPI report as well as the September and October jobs reports that were impacted by the shutdown.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT SLIDES TO NEAR-LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON
A note by JPMorgan economists explained that household survey data for the October jobs report wasn’t collected and neither was data for the October CPI report.
The JPMorgan report assessed that the October CPI report might not be published because of the lack of data collection, or it could be filed judgmentally. They added that the September jobs report could come out within a week of the shutdown’s end, while the October edition could be released at the same time as November’s jobs report.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press conference on Wednesday that the “Democrat shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for… economists, investors and policymakers at the Federal Reserve to receive critical data.”
“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” Leavitt added.
President Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday that ended the 43-day shutdown. The stopgap measure funds the government through Jan. 30.
