EXCLUSIVE: The incoming El Niño, detected by global weather monitoring organisations, could produce an effect so powerful that it drives up food prices in the UK and leaves shelves bare
A ‘Godzilla’ El Niño so strong that it could outstrip every other in recorded history is set land in a matter of months, tipping global weather patterns on their head – and hitting Brits squarely in their pockets.
Scientists and top weather experts have warned in recent months that a super-powered El Niño – a recurring climate event originating in the Pacific Ocean that causes sea warming, creating a massive heat source that raises global temperatures and disrupts the weather – is inbound this year. El Niños occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, raising temperatures in a vast area between North and South America and Asia by an average of 0.5C above the long-term average.
But the latest, a weather expert has warned, could outstrip historic temperature increases established in previous events, and potentially exacerbate the ongoing cost of living and price rise crises by interrupting the UK’s commodities supply chain.
Speaking to the Mirror, weather expert and founder of British Weather Services, Jim Dale, said that the long-term average during the latest El Niño could reach a “catastrophic” 5C, and be compounded by the effects of global warming. He said: “One of the reasons why this is being flagged is because the combination between that and ongoing global warming means that we could be on steroids in terms of when it actually manifests in its fullness.”
The extreme nature of the upcoming temperature increase is set to produce nightmare conditions across a massive band across the equator.
Tropical land is likely to be unnaturally suppressed when El Niño arrives, leaving Asia, Africa and South America with drier than usual conditions during the continents’ rainy seasons. The phenomenon will also hit the United States, Peru, Argentina, and nations in southern Europe, and East Africa, where it can cause increased rainfall and severe flooding.
The impact area means that the UK isn’t directly in Godzilla El Niño’s path, but it is still subject to its effects on other countries on a “slow fuse”, Mr Dale added, saying the consequences will likely be catastrophic for the country’s supply chain.
He said: “In terms of the UK, it’s a slow fuse. We are on the periphery, we’re not in the mind’s eye of it, because essentially this is for tropical, subtropical areas. That’s where the main effects will be, along with Australia, some parts of that tropical, some not. But that’s essentially where the main impacts will be.”
“In effect, it’s the commodities, the food chains. So everything from bananas to coffee, sugar, tea, cocoa, all of those are going to be under pressure going forward.”
Mr Dale summed up the situation by adding El Niño would “have a knock-on effect of food distribution around the world”. He continued: “The knock on effects, as far as life is concerned, ecosystem life, that isn’t just humans, but it’s also wildlife and other things, is likely to be huge, potentially huge.”
The expert added that forecasters are currently only “talking potentials” as the Godzilla-sized event is yet to arrive, but said the situation looks increasingly bleak for the UK.
He added: “You might be sitting here thinking to yourself: ‘Yeah, okay, I can afford coffee at this moment in time’. But if coffee crop fails in West Africa, or in Central America, then you know those commodities prices are going to go through the roof and your coffee is £1 or £2 more than it was yesterday.
“You can expect shelves of various products, particularly fruit, veg and other items, either to be sky-high prices or not available at all into the future. That may take six months to happen, but nonetheless it still has to be factored in.”
Mr Dale evoked the supermarket crisis of 2023, when crop yields in southern Spain and Morocco – two major UK produce sources – were hit by unusually cold weather and floods. During the crisis, shelves were empty for extended periods as the two nations favoured their European neighbours due to disrupted travel.
The warning about supply chain disruption was repeated by the WMO’s Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, who said its footprint would also impact energy supplies and water resources.
She said: “This update matters because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions.”
The strain caused by El Niño, if it lands as predicted, will hit already cash-strapped Brits impacted by the UK’s cost of living crisis, with the product monitoring Consumer Price Index (CPI) up by 2.8 percent, and a 13 percent increase in the Ofgem energy price cap.
El Niño has been followed for the last 200 years, with Peruvian fishermen first noting the Pacific Ocean warming back in the 19th century, naming it “the boy” as it typically arrived in the month of December. In the 21st century, it is doggedly tracked by official organisations, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO warned this week that there was an 80 percent chance El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August this year, and a 90 percent probability in the months following. El Niño events tend to appear late in one year and peak in the early months of the next.
Those projections have been fuelled by readings showing that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are 6C above normal for the time of year, outstripping some of the most significant temperature increases caused by other “super” El Niño events. The upcoming event, which has also been called “super duper”, is one of several souped-up, notably intense instances.
Three have been recorded since the 1980s, landing from 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 respectively and pushing sea temperature 2C above the long-term average.
