Ruinous rises for a spendthrift Ministry of Defence are a bullet Andy Burnham and John Healey either dodge or Labour’s fresh commanders will shoot a revitalised UK government in the foot.
Because the blunt choice is between prioritising higher living standards, social care and council houses or throwing away good money after bad without any proof Britain would be better protected militarily. The new Prime Minister signalled he’s spotted the trap in refusing to commit to predecessor Keir Starmer’s £80billion annual target of 3% GDP by 2030, up £10bn a year, in his BBC interview.
For Healey, now charged with finding money after quitting as Starmer’s Defence Secretary with an incendiary claim the country wasn’t safe, the dilemma is deeply personal as well as highly political. Stick to Starmer’s destructive Nato 3.5% guns and that would soar to £140bn by 2035, requiring a £40bn increase in today’s prices. The respected Institute for Government think-tank warned that is the equivalent to two-thirds of the schools budget or the combined budgets of the Home Office and Ministry of Justice.
Welfare vs warfare may over-simplify options but unless the PM and Chancellor find a giant pot of gold there would be trade-offs. And unless a political-industrial-military consensus (all major national parties save the Greens are locked in a ludicrous game of Play Your Cards Right shouting “higher”) is challenged an MoD damned for “unbelievable” waste by decorated Colonel Al Carns who resigned alongside Healey will be a disastrous drain.
We need Burnham to state Britain is already the world’s sixth biggest defence spender and towards the head of the Nato pack in share of national wealth. The basic idea of Nato is Britain never stands alone which is a double relief given the MoD’s record of paying more for late and worse armoured vehicles and warships.
My hunch is the PM will duck and dive rather than disown Starmer’s legacy of unrealistic, unnecessary international targets as he tries to fill a £5bn black hole. For Healey, it’s much tricker, though he could drop into conversations the 500,000 men GCHQ spy centre’s chiefs believes Russia has lost in Ukraine means Putin’s bled his country dry.
One of Burnham’s new ministers told me the percentage targets were madness. The PM might agree.
The future of his mission to transform Britain for everybody rests on missing them.
Farage’s pop-up prison hypocrisy
Had to laugh when flailing Farage proposed pop-up “Nightingale” prisons on MoD land to ease overcrowding when kneejerk Nigel and Reform routinely back locals campaigning against holding asylum seekers in redundant army camps.
I don’t imagine villagers and townies would welcome thousands of criminals plopped on their doorsteps in makeshift, insecure huts and I bet hypocritical Farage would join the outrage.
Burnham, who is reviewing who might be let out early to free cells for fresh convicts, inherited a poisonous Sophie’s Choice from the Con-servatives which bedevilled Starmer but this is an issue exposing Reform’s vacuous gimmickry.
Running away from debating a bin in his Clacton farce, Farage wants to talk about everything except his £5million secret bung, aristo “Posh George” Cottrell paying his bills and now London private bank Arbuthnot Latham freezing Reform’s account for two weeks during the general election over potentially illegal donations.
Fleet is the real deal
Burnham enjoyed a sure-footed first week but one misstep was not finding a new job for Natalie Fleet, the Bolsover MP whose own rape traumas prevented her from continuing as Safeguarding Minister.
Groomed, raped and made pregnant aged 15 by an older man and revealing she was raped in her sleep by another, the strength she finds to speak publicly is heroic.
That Fleet doesn’t consider herself brave or courageous is another reason this working class marvel who speaks for and inspires millions of other women feeling ignored should’ve been shuffled into another post. Be it making welfare work, sorting social care or building houses, the point is we need people not robots in power – and fighter Fleet is the real deal.
Inciting the dross
No great surprise most thugs arrested during last month’s mindless violence after the jailing of student Henry Nowak’s cynical murderer had previously been reported to police for domestic abuse.
I say no great surprise because two in five arrested after summer 2024 disturbances in parts of the country following the Southport murders had similarly been reported for domestic abuse.
Hard Right and Far Right politicians incite the dross to riot. Entirely separately, have you heard their deafening silence since the arrest of influencers Andrew and Tristan Tate on 59 charges of rape, violent assault, trafficking girls and the indecent images of a child? Bet it would be a different story if they were Muslims.
Going Up
Brickie turned Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram is the most important building block in Andy Burnham’s team.
As long as these Scousers stay friends the new PM’s feet are on the ground. Fall out and it’ll be like the ravens leaving the Tower of London.
Going Down
Blocked standing again for the Cons by Kemi Badenoch because she doesn’t think him extreme enough, ex-party chair Grant Shapps should reapply under his get-rich-quick pseudonym Michael Green. The Tories always love a scammer.
