Developments in the Middle East conflict have sparked hope that prices are about to top out after weeks of rapid rises
Since conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran sparked an economic bombshell through March, petrol and diesel prices in the UK have risen sharply. Drivers had been enjoying stable and reasonably affordable costs over the first two months of 2026, before that came to an abrupt halt.
In the weeks since strikes were first launched at the end of February, petrol drivers have seen prices rise by around 25p per litre, while diesel drivers have been hit even harder – having no choice but to stomaches of around 50p in that time.
However, news of a two-week ceasefire overnight and fresh moves to reopen the vital oil shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz has seen oil prices drop substantially, albeit they remain well above where they were before the conflict began. It has sparked cautious hope that pump prices may start to fall.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “The average price of a litre of unleaded is now at 157.71p – up 25p (19%) since the war began – while diesel has exceeded the 190p mark (190.62p) and is up 48p (34%) since February 28.
“Both fuels are now at their most expensive since late 2022.
“The conditional ceasefire announcement may have taken some heat out of global oil prices, but the outlook for drivers in the UK remains highly uncertain.
“The best hope in the short term is that pump prices stop rising at the rate they have been and hopefully top out in the coming days.
“Much will depend on the stability of the ceasefire, whether oil shipments can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and the longer‑term impact on oil production across the Gulf.
“As it is a sustained lower oil price – over several weeks, not just a few days – that is required to bring wholesale fuel costs down meaningfully.
“Drivers should not expect significantly cheaper fuel in the short term, although some smaller independent forecourts buying on a ‘spot’ basis may be quicker to pass on any reductions.
“We continue to recommend drivers shop around for fuel and make use of free apps like myRAC to ensure they always get the best price each time they fill up.”
