A huge gulf could be about to develop between the UK and a key Middle Eastern ally should Benjamin Netanyahu continues with the horror being we’re witnessing in Gaza
Britain ‘recognising’ a state of Palestine has major diplomatic implications.
It will infuriate the Netanyahu government which post October 7 is not currently willing to countenance one. And it will delight Palestinians, the French government and others who have already done the same.
But to use it as an ultimatum, meaning it’s a threat to Netanyahu and a dangle in front of Palestinians, is a risk. If Netanyahu significantly changes the Israeli stance in Gaza and commits to a two state solution, the UK will be accused of forcing it too early – the war against Hamas is still being fought as far as Israel is concerned.
And, far more likely, if Netanyahu refuses to bend and continues with the horror being imposed on Gazans a huge gulf could develop between the UK and a key Middle Eastern ally. That would also lead to a schism between the UK and the US.
We do not know what Donald Trump said to Keir Starmer in private and it is possible Starmer may have warned him. The UK is breaking cover and trying to force a two state solution and Netanyahu, with the backing of the US, will likely refuse to budge.
There will likely be a vote on the Palestine issue in the UN and this would probably be blocked by the US. Diplomatically, UK recognition of Palestine may lead to the opening of an embassy in London, along with a team of diplomats.
This recognition, though perhaps blocked by other UN nations such as the US, would give the UK meaningful access to Palestinian politics whose epicentre is in Ramallah, in the West Bank. It is a bold move which could prove testing for Starmer’s grit.
But it could be the beginning of a roadmap to peace that, though Netanyahu will fight it tooth and nail, may lead to a less troubled region.The problem for Netanyahu is he knows that the UN-backed International Criminal Court has issued a war crimes arrest warrant for him.
How UK recognition of a state of Palestine would effect that case is extremely complex but it will lend it weight. And I know that he is very worried about it and he will fight this all the way.
The gloves are off.
