EXCLUSIVE: The world is increasingly becoming more unstable with threats being posed to Britain that it has not seen in decades, yet our defence capabilities are the weakest they have been in many years
Britain is “not ready for war” and would be vulnerable to missile and drone attacks in the event of a war, a military analyst has warned.
British military capability has been dramatically weakened and underfunded in the decades following the end of the Cold War, leading the Labour government to beef up investment to keep Brits safe from foreign threats. The delayed Defence Investment Plan vowed to allocate £298billion in defence spending over the next four years.
The move is aimed at reversing a decline in defence spending, after increased threats in Europe from Russia and a United States that has proved to be impulsive; such as when Donald Trump threatened to annex the autonomous Danish island of Greenland. But the current situation is somewhat dire for British defences, which would not be able to wholly protect against missile or drone attacks in the event of a flashpoint war being triggered on the European continent.
“I come to the view that the extra money invested by the defence investment plan and many of the things that are being bought for the army as a result will stop the decline,” Military Ben Barry told The Mirror. So it will flatten [it] out but at the moment it’s not ready for war – if by war you mean full-scale conflict between the British army and a capable peer opponent like a mobilised Russian army.”
Military analysts have raised concerns in recent weeks that as the tyrant Vladimir Putin continues to see significant Russian casualties and Ukrainian drones striking key infrastructure in the country, he could lash out against a NATO member. Under Article 5 of NATO, member states – including Britain – would be obliged to come to the aid of the nation under attack.
It could lead to a situation where Britain comes under direct attack, leaving bare the exposed nature of the UK’s defences. Despite having played a crucial part in the War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq, the UK army dropped from about 102,000 in 2006 to 74,370 over the past 20 years, with investment also dropping in key areas of defence.
NATO member states recently met in Ankara, Turkey, where allies met to discuss progress toward investing 5% of GDP in defence by 2035. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said last week: “This is not simply about spending more, it is about ensuring that our armed forces have what they need to keep our one billion people safe in a more dangerous world.”
While a traditional full-scale invasion of Britain is extremely unlikely, non-traditional warfare, such as targeted bombardments, drone attacks and attacks on infrastructure could happen should the UK enter into a conflict.
Mr Barry said: “Although there’s extra money being put into missile defence and air defence of the UK right now, my judgement is that if there were a war in Europe, which could easily come as an accident from an unexpected flash point or miscalculation, the UK would be on the receiving end of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and also drones quite possibly launched from sea.
“Now, some of these could be shot down by our NATO allies on the way here, but a proportion of them would get through. Right now, the UK has virtually no missile defence, and its air defence is under-resourced compared with the sort of attack that Iran’s been doing in the Gulf States.”
The threat from drones and missiles have been made increasingly apparent on the European continent amid waves of attacks on both Ukrainian and Russian cities and infrastructure. Armies bordering Russia have set up drone and missile defences to combat any incursion into their territory.
Thankfully, Barry said Britain’s armed forces can follow their lead to help keep populations and infrastructure safe. He added: “Right now armies that are busy improving their air defence are investing in a number of things – the first thing is they’re investing in very close defence.
“People with machine guns and heavy machine guns and automatic cannons that you find on many armoured vehicles. They’re very useful and close in defence as drones, Indeed, the British Army has also fielded a sophisticated weapon site for a rifle to improve its chances of shooting down a drone. And drones can get shot down like this.”
“My judgement is that none of these are a silver bullet but used in conjunction with each other,” Barry added. “You set up a layered complimentary counter drone air defence system which will also help you against incoming missiles and incoming conventional aircraft and helicopters.”
“I think what armed forces are going to have to do is find a way of creating bubbles of these capabilities that move around the battlefield with battlefield forces.”