The war in the Middle East is putting pressure on supply chains by pushing up fuel and energy costs – and some examples of higher prices have already been highlighted
UK households have been warned that food prices are likely to keep rising – with everyday essentials such as oil and pasta having already taken some of the worst hits.
New research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank shows food prices are on track to be 50% higher by November compared to levels at the start of the cost of living crisis in mid-2021.
The “grim milestone” is due to a combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and volatile oil and gas markets.
The war in the Middle East is putting pressure on supply chains by pushing up fuel and energy costs. Increased energy and fuel costs can impact several factors of food production, including transportation and the running of machinery .These extra costs are typically passed down to consumers.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also caused disruption of fertiliser supplies, which are used to grow fruit and vegetables. About a third of the world’s fertilisers normally pass through the Strait, according to the United Nations.
According to the analysis, the cost of staples including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs and beef are already up between 50% and 64%. Olive oil is also up 113% having first endured big increases in price during the cost of living crisis.
Other climate-impacted foods that are putting pressure on food inflation include butter, milk and coffee, with these foods rising over four times faster than other products.
Latest inflation figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show grocery prices are currently 3.8% higher than a year ago, with households warned that the Middle East conflict has “not yet” filtered through to supermarket shelves.
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has warned food inflation could reach 9% by the end of 2026. Separately, businesses have told the Bank of England that UK food inflation could reach 7%.
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike.
“Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.
“Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russian invaded Ukraine.”
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said: “Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate.
“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.
“This conflict is the latest shock in a series, and there will be more. The question for Government isn’t just how to respond to this crisis – it’s whether we’re finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one.”
Which items to buy now?
While there is no need to panic buy, shoppers may want to consider stocking up on certain items now in case they do keep rising in price.
We’ve looked at some examples of some food that has already gone up in price and worked out how much more it could cost if prices rise by another 50% based on the ECIU report.
This isn’t to say prices for these specific items will rise by this much, but is more to demonstrate a worst-case scenario increase, based on average prices now.
If prices were to rise by 50% then it could see shoppers spend an extra £16 on these items alone. We’ve analysed the average price across different supermarkets, as opposed to the cheapest possible.
You should only buy what you will definitely use, and things that have a long expiry life or can be frozen, to avoid food waste.
Data from Waste and Resources Action Programme (Wrap) shows the average household of four spends a whopping £1,000 each year on good food that goes in the bin and could have been eaten.
Pasta
The average price of a 500g bag of supermarket own brand pasta is around 60p. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price of pasta could hit 90p.
Frozen vegetables
The average price of a 1kg bag of supermarket own brand mixed frozen vegetables is about 99p. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £1.49.
Chocolate
The average price of a 200g bar of supermarket own brand chocolate is around £2.10. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £3.15.
Eggs
The average price of a box of six supermarket own brand medium eggs is about £1.70. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £2.55.
Beef
The average price of supermarket own brand beef is around £15 per kg. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £22.50.
Olive oil
The average price of 1L of supermarket own brand beef olive oil is about £6.15. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £9.20.
Butter
The average price of a 250g block of supermarket own brand butter is around £1.99. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £2.98.
Milk
The average price of a four pints of supermarket own brand milk is £1.65. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £2.46.
Coffee
The average price of a 200g jar of supermarket own brand coffee is £2.50. If this was to rise by 50% then it would mean the average price would be £3.75.
