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Voters head to the polls with odds favoring a Dem sweep. (0:17) Nonfarm payrolls seen up 65K for October. (1:26) Apple, AMD and Palantir earnings test battered tech stocks. (1:59)
The following is an abridged transcript:
Attention turns to politics this week with the midterm elections, while the jobs report dominates the macro front and Apple (AAPL), AMD (AMD) and Palantir (PLTR) report earnings amid a brutal tech selloff.
Voters head to the polls Tuesday with control of both chambers of Congress at stake. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate.
A shift in congressional control could have implications for fiscal policy, regulation and sectors including banks, crypto, defense and healthcare.
Prediction-market traders are increasingly pricing in a Democratic sweep this week.
Kalshi’s balance-of-power market put the chance of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at about 70% on Sunday morning, up sharply from levels seen earlier in the fall. Odds of a Democratic sweep were below 50% in early September.
The contract for Democrats taking the House while Republicans retain the Senate stood at 27%, while a Republican sweep was priced at 6.7%.
Polymarket showed a similar picture, with traders putting the odds of a Democratic sweep at 72%. A split Congress with a Republican Senate and Democratic House was priced at 23%, while a Republican sweep stood at 5%. There was a one-in-four chance of a Democratic sweep a year ago.
On the economic front, Friday brings the October jobs report. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post a gain of 65K, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.2%.
Wells Fargo economists say the theme of the labor market remains one of stability.
“Initial jobless claims remain historically low, while job openings continue to move sideways,” they add. “The employment indices from regional Fed surveys pulled back modestly in manufacturing this month, but remain in expansion territory for both goods and services. Taken together, these indicators suggest job growth continues to run near breakeven.”
Looking to earnings, tech bulls will be hoping that Apple, AMD and Palantir can lure in buyers after Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC) sandbagged the longs, with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shedding 2% on the week.
Apple and Palantir report Monday, with AMD up Tuesday.
SA analyst Capital Minded, who has a Buy on Apple, says the foldable $1,999 iPhone Duo could add $7B in new holiday revenue, but rising memory costs threaten to erode EPS growth in 2027.
December guidance of 10%+ revenue growth and 47%+ gross margin “would confirm Duo’s impact and margin resilience,” they say.
But analyst Lee Bailey, who has a Sell on the stock, says earnings upside is limited.
He also says at $345, the stock trades at an “unjustifiable” 36x 2027 earnings multiple compared to his fair value estimate of $270.
Elsewhere on the earnings calendar:
Realty Income (O) and ON Semiconductor (ON) report Monday.
Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE) and Block (XYZ) issue numbers Tuesday.
Arm (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM), McDonald’s (MCD) and Uber (UBER) weigh in on Wednesday.
Toyota Motor (TM), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Airbnb (ABNB) report Thursday.
In the news this weekend, Binance said that it has covered 90% of cryptocurrency assets affected by a massive cyberattack last week and is resuming withdrawals today.
Binance said that the remaining 10% of the stolen assets consist of less liquid tokens, which means that the time it takes to replenish them will be longer.
And Meta Platforms (META) has developed a prototype humanoid robot in collaboration with the Chinese startup Fourier and is already working on a second version, The Information reported.
The roughly 106-pound humanoid, called Max internally, was built in just three months. The initiative comes as Meta doubles down on its efforts to develop robots that people can use in their homes.
And for income investors Blackstone (BX) and Citigroup (C) go ex-dividend on Monday. Blackstone pays out on Nov. 9 and Citi on Nov. 25.
Brown & Brown (BRO) goes ex-dividend Wednesday with a Nov. 11 payout date.
Carnival Corp. (CCL) goes ex-dividend Friday, paying out on Nov. 27.