EXCLUSIVE: As shoppers are issued a gloomy warning about potential food shortages amid the prolonged drought, the Mirror takes a look at the issue which has had farmers pleading for help
With a fourth heatwave and a prolonged drought declared across large parts of the country, Britain’s usually proud green lawns have been scorched, while farmers have been left dealing with woeful harvests.
England and Wales have officially recorded their driest July since records began, with southern England having seen its driest month on record, as per provisional statistics from the Met Office. It’s now feared this could have worrying knock-on effects for the average supermarket shop, at a time when cash-strapped Brits are already struggling, with rising prices and potential food shortages.
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has now demanded tax breaks on crucial water storage systems, warning that the country could well face shortages of certain foods. It’s a stark warning of how vulnerable our food supply really is in the face of climate change.
What is causing the prolonged drought?
Record-low rainfall and relentless temperatures mean that half of England is now facing drought conditions – the third in just five years – leaving millions urged to restrict their water use. This follows four scorching heatwaves in the UK so far this year.
For farmers, it’s an uneasy time, and a reminder that we are already very much living through the effects of climate change, with an urgent need to adapt.
Alys Bannister, Campaign Manager for the Sustainable Farming Campaign at Sustain, tells the Mirror: “Effectively, this drought is low rainfall over a prolonged period, multiple heatwaves, that is increasing evaporation, which means soil moisture is drying out. It is climate change that is increasing the likelihood and the severity of this extreme weather.”
On top of this, there are the human factors exacerbating the issue. Dr Charlie Taverner, Farming Policy Lead at Food, Farming and Countryside Commission (FFCC) explains: “There are challenges with the lack of investment over decades into water storage and the resilience of our water security, which ultimately feeds into water shortages as well.”
Which foods are at risk of shortages?
Alys warns that the types of farming where reliable water sources are vital, from horticulture to livestock, are particularly vulnerable. And Dr Taverner notes that shoppers in the UK aren’t used to seeing a direct link between weather and what ends up on our supermarket shelves.
Cereal crops such as wheat and barley may well see reduced yields, with the last five years seeing “disastrous” harvests, given that there is a global market for many such crops, you likely won’t see a lack of bread on the shelves anytime soon.
However, there will potentially be a disruption surrounding vegetables which require plenty of water, including cucumbers and leafy greens, with recent upheavals with major suppliers Spain and North Africa illustrating just how reliant we are on other countries for our fruit and veg.
Dr Taverner adds: “We only produce about half of our vegetables, and about a sixth of our fruit, so that it’s probably in those areas that we also kind of get affected by global shortages.”
Will food prices go up if there are shortages?
Anna Taylor, Executive Director at the Food Foundation, says we have already seen products such as cocoa spike significantly in price due to climate shocks. Back in January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the price of chocolate had soared by 15 per cent following a relatively stable 25-year period.
One key reason for this is the extremely sensitive cocoa trees, which don’t fare well with temperature and rainfall shifts. Poor yields in growing regions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana resulted in less cocoa being produced, and a hike in the price of raw beans.
These climate shocks, coupled with the conflict unfolding in the Middle East, have led to “a double problem” in terms of food prices and potential shortages. Anna explains: “We’re going to be starting to see more and more of these types of shocks hit particular crops and create these inflationary effects and also shortages.”
Given that we, as a nation, are highly dependent on imports from countries with more significant water shortages and climate shocks than we are currently seeing, it’s more important than ever to become more self-sufficient as a nation, with greater support for the agricultural sector.
According to the British Growers website, Britain is currently less than 60 per cent self-sufficient when it comes to our vegetable & salads supply, a figure that is on the decline, raising concerns as the UK population continues to boom towards some 70 million people.
When could food shortages happen?
While Dr Taverner doesn’t believe we’ll see immediate shortages, the risk could become far greater in the years and decades to come should we fail to “grow food in a more climate resilient way”, including boosting the all-important production of fruit and veg here in the UK.
He warns: “What we need to be concerned about is the years to come as this becomes more and more normal because we might think we’re okay today, but the challenge and the potential shortages could come in years ahead.”
What should you do in a food shortage?
While this is an issue that goes far beyond individuals, there are things ordinary shoppers can do day to day to limit the impact in their shopping trolley and bank account. Chelsea Kerr, MD of Too Good To Go, UK & Ireland, warns people against “panic buying” in response to potential shortages, instead thinking “creatively” about the ingredients they do have to hand, in a way that helps to cut waste.
The food sustainability expert suggests: “The best thing UK households can do is avoid panic buying and get creative with what they already have at home. At Too Good To Go, we often see people buying ingredients for a single recipe, only for the leftovers to sit unused and eventually go to waste.
“During periods of pressure on supermarket shelves, it’s even more important to make the most of the food you already have and embrace flexible, zero-waste cooking using everyday ingredients.
“Not only does this help reduce waste, but it can also make your food shop go further. And of course, consumers can rescue surplus food locally from their favourite brands and retailers, helping communities stretch their budgets while ensuring perfectly good food is eaten rather than wasted.”
While the outlook may feel grim, beans, pulses, and legumes tend to remain relatively safe from price rises and can provide essential nutrients for a healthy diet at lower prices, which is why the Food Foundation highly recommends them to low-income households.
Anna pointed towards the Food Foundation’s current campaign, Bangin’ Some Beans, focused on replacing or supplementing potentially pricey meat products with beans, for example, in “a Bolognese sauce where you might take out a little bit of beef, and you put some beans and lentils in instead.”
She enthused: “Delicious on taste, packs loads of punch in fibre, and a much more affordable source of protein. So there are little hacks which savvy shoppers can deploy to try and make that limited budget work in a situation where prices are going up, and meat and dairy have been one of the things where prices really have been going up.”
Keeping on top of food waste is also a big one, with Anna urging those with freezers to make use of them to keep budget-friendly leftovers.
What can be done to help farmers?
A 10-year weather survey by the NFU last year found that 70 per cent of farmers reported increased heatwaves and heat stress, which made farming more difficult. NFU Deputy President Paul Tompkins last week said that it was becoming “harder, riskier and more costly to produce the nation’s food.”
Having warned last week that farmers “urgently need secure, reliable access to water”, Paul urged: “There are practical steps government and the water supply chain can take now.
“That means creating a risk register for vulnerable farm businesses, improving local communications, being as adaptable as possible with abstraction so farmers can access water when it rains and unlocking the investment and planning changes needed to build more reservoirs. With joined-up government, this can be achieved. Securing water for farming means securing the food on the nation’s plates.”
According to Anna, there’s plenty the government can be doing to support farmers forced to adapt to a changing climate, from investing in reservoirs to improve water security, to ensuring greenhouses are afforded the same discounts as other energy-intensive industries receive
Public food procurement, by which public money is used to provide food and catering services in a variety of sectors, will also play a critical role here. As Anna explains: “When the government is essentially buying food for schools, for hospitals, for care homes, and so forth, they could really start to pivot that buying towards more locally, British-sourced food. Lots of opportunity there to build up confidence amongst the farmers that they’ve got a market for their produce.”
Meanwhile, experts at Sustain are dedicated to helping farms transition to what they call “agroecological” or “nature-friendly methods of farming”. This would partly involve creating healthier soils that could absorb more water, “like a sponge” during rainfall, which they could then hold onto during drier conditions.
Alys says: “The long-term issue is we really need to make sure that UK food production in the long term remains resilient, we are starting to see climate impacts becoming more severe. If we adapt farming, we are in a better place. We know this extreme weather is going to keep happening, so building adaptation and resilience in our farming means we are more resilient to future shocks. In doing so, that should hopefully bring stability to food prices in the long term.”
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