Mirror Political Correspondent Sophie Huskisson writes in with the three questions the PM faces over defence spending…
1) Is the £15billion military spending boost enough?
Some military voices have warned the £15bn funding for the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) is well below the £28bn defence chiefs had originally requested. They warn the plan does not set out how the UK will hit its target to spend 3% of GDP on defence nor its Nato commitment of 3.5% by 2035.
Former Defence Secretary John Healey warned the DIP fell short of what was needed to see off the threat from Vladimir Putin. He said Britain will “still be spending just 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2030, the date when Nato has warned we could face a Russian attack”. Max Warner, a senior research economist at IFS, said the Government needs to set out a path to 3.5% of GDP spent on defence by 2035, which he said will cost around an additional £25billion each year.
2) Is the Defence Investment Plan fully funded?
In short, no. This leaves a huge headache for Andy Burnham, who is widely expected to take over from Keir Starmer in Downing Street.
As journalists trawled over the small print of the DIP on Tuesday, we spotted that £4.7billion – almost a third of the £15bn plan – will need to be funded in the Budget. It is understood that Mr Burnham was not told about the black hole when he was briefed on the plans, which experts said could force him to consider tax rises, more borrowing or spending cuts.
Defence minister Luke Pollard this morning said the £4.7bn black hole in the plan was “not unusual”. But Mr Starmer is likely to face some tough questions on the funding of the DIP at PMQs.
3) How will the rest of the plan be funded?
Keir Starmer is already facing some pushback over his decision to slash some Government spending in order to fund defence.
The PM admitted some road and energy projects which “are important but not immediately vital” will be scrapped to support the plan. Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer criticised “uncertainty” over a road project near his constituency following the announcement.
Mr Starmer warned his successor – likely Andy Burnham – that defence spending must be a priority in any future spending reviews. But the PM-in-waiting is left with very few options to fill the £4.7bn black hole, with tax rises, spending cuts and borrowing all seen as either too risky or too unpopular.