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Falling oil prices lift stocks; AI trade looks calmer (0:35) Is the tech selloff a buying opportunity? (1:40) Marvell/Lumentum deal – smart, but weird timing (4:05). Apple and Palantir face critical earnings tests (6:50)
Transcript
Rena Sherbill: Welcome back, everybody, to a new week. Welcome to November. We are back once again with Mr. Chris Ciaccia as we all await Julie Morgan’s return next week.
Chris, we are happy to have you because we, as you mentioned late last week, there’s been a deluge of tech earnings and earnings in general, of course, but a lot of tech earnings and also some major ones coming up after the bell today, including Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR).
What would you say about today’s market? We also have the big Marvell (MRVL) Lumentum (LITE) deal.
Chris Ciaccia: I think Rena that we’re seeing a little bit of a return to investors having a little bit a calmer head when it comes to the AI trade.
Got some good news over the weekend. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump wants to resolve the war with Iran diplomatically as opposed to using force. So you’re seeing oil prices come down significantly, and that’s that’s helped equities. we’ll see whether that actually happens or not, because there were some reports saying that Netanyahu pressed Trump to use force. So we’ll see what actually happens, especially after the midterms.
But for right now, it seems to be that investors are starting the week on a little bit of a positive note.
And like you mentioned, we’ve got earnings from big tech companies like Apple and Palantir, and that’ll kinda set the the tone for the rest of the week.
Rena Sherbill: We had this Investing Experts Podcast episode last week with Sara Awad from Tech Contrarians. And the headline on that was the tech bubble will pop in 2027.
And if you wouldn’t mind indulging me, I would just like to read a little bit from that comment thread and ask you a question at the end of it.
So the first place I want to start in the common thread is why are things selling off on decent earnings reports and who is doing the selling.
And then somebody answers, big money knows valuations can only go so high, and then there is no more big money to be made. So induce volatility, as then you can make money on that. Additionally, Gulf sovereign wealth funds, drop in oil revenue, payouts to citizens still need to be made. Bills still need to be paid.
And Sara from Tech Contrarians, part of her answer to that thread was
I think that part of what we’re seeing is a reset to what’s actually driving growth and how sustainable those drivers are against the amount of pull-ins and double ordering we saw in the first part of 2026.
What would you say to that part of the conversation, as it pertains to tech?
Chris Ciaccia: I would push back a little bit on that. You saw money flowing out of tech on good earnings and then the money was flowing into consumer goods, companies that are super safe like Merck (MRK), Procter and Gamble (PG).
Those companies aren’t coming out with products that are just gonna explode their growth. It’s their safe haven. So it’s just a rotation that we’ve seen, I think things will pick up here for the AI trade going back after we know what the results of the midterm elections are, whether it’s gonna be a Democratic sweep or a split Congress.
I think once that issue itself is resolved, that’ll take a lot of uncertainty out of the market.
And you’ll see what we’ve seen over the the first eight months or so, nine months of the year sort of resume.
Also, people have to remember the second year of a presidential term is generally the hardest to make money in for whatever reason. The third and fourth years tend to be a little bit more positive.
So we’ll see what happens going into next year, but I don’t believe the AI tech bubble is gonna burst unless companies just drastically cut back spending and we’ve seen no inclination of that.
And unless the Fed does something drastic that is some sort of black swan event that comes out of left field.
But everything on the horizon right now points to continued spending in 2027.
Rena Sherbill: The deal between Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE), Marvell announced an agreement to acquire Lumentum in an all stock transaction.
The deal is intended to expand Marvell’s optical networking capabilities and AI connectivity exposure with regulatory and shareholder approvals still required. What would you say about that deal? What are your thoughts?
Chris Ciaccia: I think it’s a smart deal from Marvell’s standpoint.
My question, and it seems like a lot of investors’ questions are today, are why now? Lumentum shares have been exceptionally strong this year and even in 2025. So what’s the reasoning to do it now?
It kind of comes off as Marvell’s thinking either they are late to the game and they didn’t really have conviction that this AI spending bonanza was gonna continue.
So I’m just wondering, what the rationale of doing it now is, when momentum is so much more expensive than it was six months ago, nine months ago.
I think that’s the reason why you’re seeing the reaction for both Marvell shares selling off and Lumentum shares selling off, given the fact that it’s an all stock deal.
I just kinda question the timing of it. But I don’t actually question the rationale.
Rena Sherbill: Do you have any speculative theories on the timing of it?
Chris Ciaccia: From Marvell’s standpoint, I think that they’ve focused a little bit less on their optical networking portion. That’s still been their bread and butter, but they their focus lately has been on their custom ASIC business.
Winning contracts from companies like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft and others that are getting and building custom chips. So this may be refocusing back on what had been their their big area of focus for a number of years.
They said this morning that it expands their total addressable market to just over half a trillion dollars. So, maybe they’re starting to see some slowing down in their optical networking business and they need to reinvigorate that growth.
Rena Sherbill: So, as mentioned, we have a bunch of big names reporting later today. Just to quote Mr. Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives.
After a brutal week for tech stocks, tonight, Apple and Palantir prints are each very important for different reasons. Apple, consumer demand, memory comments, AI push, and adoption. Palantir is the best barometer for AI use case demand. Expect step forward for the tech sector.
The major indexes have been higher today, the bond market yields were lower, oil prices have sharply declined. What else would you add in terms of the the earnings picture or the broader picture for investors today?
Chris Ciaccia: Let’s start with Palantir (PLTR) first.
I think that Palantir is gonna continue doing what they’ve done and that’s show explosive growth both in their commercial business, their government business, and it seems like investors have been rewarding them each earnings report, but then the stock sells off, and I’m not entirely sure why.
Whether they think the numbers are just not sustainable or not, but I think they are. I do not see government spending when it comes to enterprise software and and where Palantir plays slowing down, and Palantir has been able to sign a whole bunch of agreements with different companies to further boost their B2B business.
And as for Apple, I think this is gonna be interesting because this is John Ternus’ first conference call without Tim Cook kinda hanging over his shoulder. Ternus took over the reins in the early part of September. Now Tim Cook is the executive chairman and this is our first look at John Ternus’ vision as a CEO.
We’ll also get some details on how the iPhone 18 Pro and the iPhone Duo are selling because they just went on sale a few weeks ago. Then we’ll get some sort of outlook for the holiday season, which just generally is Apple’s most important.
Rena Sherbill: Any other names that you care to throw in the mix that are reporting, here’s Qualcomm (QCOM), (AMD), (ARM).
Chris Ciaccia: Those names that you mentioned, Rena, report later on the week, but they’re all related to what Apple’s gonna say. Apple’s got a big relationship with Qualcomm.
Apple uses ARM’s intellect intellectual property for its chips. Even though they’re all separate companies, they’re all tangentially related. So what Apple says is gonna impact Qualcomm and what ARM say.
And Palantir is a huge company in the enterprise software space. If they can reinvigorate investor enthusiasm, then you’ll start to see some of the companies that reported last week and will report later this week, like ServiceNow (NOW), Microsoft, Atlassian (TEAM) and a couple others.
Maybe investor enthusiasm will come back because these are big names, with big, big market caps.
Apple is now the biggest company in the world. So that impacts not only those companies, but other companies as well.
