University College London study shows smoking across southern England is actually on the rise after decades of falling rates while smokers in the north are working to kick the habit
More southerners are taking up smoking while northerners are still kicking the habit, a new study has revealed.
A study by University College London shows that after decades of progress cutting smoking rates there has been an increase in Southern England since 2020. While smoking rates are still higher in the North they fell faster than the national average over the last 18 years. The study, published in the journal Addiction, analysed ‘Smoking Toolkit Study’ data from 368,057 adults in England between 2006 and 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 there was an increase in smoking rates in the South West from 16% to 18.7% as well as small increases in the South East from 15.4% to 16.8% and in London from 15.8% to 17.0%.
Lead author Dr Sarah Jackson, of UCL’s Institute of Epidemiology and Healthcare, said: “Until recently, smoking rates were highest in the north of England, but our study shows that regional differences have narrowed considerably over the past 18 years. Smoking rates fell most in northern regions, where dedicated regional tobacco control programmes have been largely concentrated.
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“But across England progress has stalled in recent years, and in some regions smoking rates appear to be increasing. It’s vital that stop smoking services are made easily and equally available across the country, so that everyone – wherever they live – can access the right tools to quit for good.”
The Office for National Statistics’ Annual Population Survey estimated last October that about six million adults smoked cigarettes in the UK in 2023, the lowest proportion since records began in 2011. It comes after retail data showed cigarette sales rose in 2020 for the first time in twenty years.
However the latest study suggests progress nationally has “stalled” in recent years. Smoking prevalence fell from 25.3% to 16.5% over the 18-year period studied but in the north of England rates almost halved from 28.8% to 15.8%. Rates in the North West went from 28.3% in 2006 to 15.7% in 2024, with rates in Yorkshire and the Humber falling from 30% to 16%, and 27.4% to 16% in the North East in the same period.
Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy and information at Cancer Research UK, which funded the study, said: “A future free from the harms of tobacco is in sight, but we can’t afford to lose any momentum. Budget pressures and changes to NHS England can’t compromise funding for programmes that help people quit – tackling smoking must be a key priority as our health services evolve.”
If the Tobacco and Vapes Bill becomes law, anyone born after January 1 2009 will be prevented from legally smoking by gradually raising the age at which tobacco can be bought. The Bill also includes a total ban on vape advertising and sponsorship, including displays seen by children and young people such as on buses, in cinemas and in shop windows, bringing them in line with tobacco restrictions. Disposable vapes will be banned from June 2025 under separate environmental legislation.
Dr Walker added: “The world-leading Tobacco and Vapes Bill is a crucial opportunity for the UK Government to shield society from the devastating effects of smoking. We urge all MPs and Lords to vote to protect the health of the nation, or more lives will be at stake.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “The landmark Tobacco and Vapes Bill will create the first smoke-free generation and put us on track to a smoke-free UK. We are also committed to supporting current smokers to quit. We’re investing an additional £70 million for local Stop Smoking Services this year, and we are working to ensure that all NHS hospitals offer ‘opt-out’ smoking cessation services.”
