The Met Office has issued its verdict on whether the UK will see any more heatwaves before the end of August, with more hot spells on the cards
The Met Office has said the UK could see more heatwaves before the end of August as weather modelling maps turn dark red.
The forecaster’s latest longer-range outlook suggests a shift towards more settled and warmer weather as August progresses. “Further heatwaves are possible” particularly towards the end of the month, it said.
Temperature anomaly maps, which show how much hotter or colder a region is predicted to be compared to its long-term average temperature for that time of year, back the Met Office’s assessment.
The GFS weather model shows areas of dark red over much of England on August 4, indicating temperatures could sit more than five degrees (C) above the long-term average. The model does not yet show projections for the middle or end of August.
However, the Met Office has warned that it is not yet possible to say exactly where any heatwave conditions will occur, how intense they might be or how long they will last.
“The key message is that further heatwaves are possible but not guaranteed,” the Met Office said. “The longer-range outlook indicates that temperatures are likely to be above average overall, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August.”
It added that factors contributing to whether heatwaves develop include the position and strength of high pressure, the source of the air moving across the UK and whether any Atlantic or thundery interruptions break down the warmer pattern.
In the meantime, conditions at the end of July and start of August are forecast to be unsettled. In its outlook for Sunday, July 26, to Tuesday, August 4, the Met Office says the weather will be changeable, with many areas likely to see a mixture of bright or sunny spells and rain at times.
Northwestern areas are most likely to see the focus of rainfall, though southeastern areas could also see some showers. While the weather at the start of the month remains uncertain, there are hints that high pressure could return for a time, which would mean dry conditions resuming, especially in the south.
Winds will be mostly light or moderate, though occasionally fresh or strong around some coasts, mainly in the north. Temperatures will be near or above normal, warmest in the south, and perhaps becoming very warm again by the start of August.
It comes after a Met Office report published in May found that there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, currently the planet’s warmest year on record.
It also found that there is a 91 per cent chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.
If global warming exceeds 1.5C – the target limit set by the Paris Agreement – the risk of severe climate impacts rises sharply. These include ecosystem damage, species extinction, more extreme weather, food and water insecurity, heat-related deaths and the loss of ancient ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which would cause sea levels to rise dramatically.
