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There were big fears last week should oil trade over $100. It has since surpassed that level, with $100 now looked upon as somewhat of a downside target. Amid the ongoing developments in Iran, where do you see WTI crude oil ending this month?
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Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
Energy watch: Is Putin the big winner in the Iran conflict?
The picks: Here are the best oil and gas stock plays.
Stepping down: The FDA’s vaccine chief is leaving the agency again.
That didn’t take long. After topping $70 per barrel early last week in the immediate aftermath of the Iran war, crude oil continued to climb, breaking through $80 and then $90 just before the weekend. The surge didn’t stop there. As futures reopened on Sunday night, the WTI benchmark (CL1:COM) took out $100 and then $110, before easing back.
The latest: Many reports suggest the G7 is considering a coordinated release of crude reserves to help tame prices in the current environment. It’d be a big help given that the Gulf shipping remains at a standstill due to the risks of transport through the Strait of Hormuz. A lot has also been going on over the last 48 hours, which has added fresh war premiums and risks of a prolonged supply shock.
Mojtaba Khamenei was elected as the next Supreme Leader of Iran, and looks set to continue in the hardline ways of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, crude production has been reduced across the Gulf, in countries like Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq, and Bahrain, amid shipping troubles and relentless attacks. There are also worries about GDP and resurgent inflation, complicating the picture for the U.S. economy and the globe.
“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Market direction: “The S&P 500’s next major move hinges on oil price direction amid geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics,” Investing Group Leader James Foord outlined in a new Seeking Alpha article. “A spike to $120 oil could trigger a 5–10% S&P 500 correction via stagflation, higher yields, and margin compression. If oil collapses to $60 as war premiums fade, expect a relief rally and acceleration of the AI-driven bull market.” Take the WSB survey.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
5 Best Dividend Stocks To Combine Growth, Income, And Defense In 2026
Microsoft: Buy The Dip, Or Regret It Forever
Forget Iran, South Korea Is The Real Threat To Markets
The Conflict In Iran Is Hiding The Truth About S&P 500
Energy, Industrials And Materials: The First Innings Of A Big Market Rotation
What else is happening…
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Live Nation (LYV) nears DOJ settlement without Ticketmaster sale.
Anthropic fallout: OPENAI hardware chief quits; new AI rules drafted.
Alphabet (GOOGL) CEO’s $692M pay deal includes Waymo incentives.
Tesla whale doubles Nvidia (NVDA) stake to ‘calm nervous market.’
Palantir (PLTR) shares see best week since August amid Iran war.
SA Asks: With WBD deal called off, what’s next for Netflix (NFLX)?
Activist Starboard builds stake in french-fry maker Lamb Weston (LW).
Novo (NVO), Hims & Hers (HIMS) eye partnership for obesity drugs.
MacKenzie Scott, Jeff Bezos’ ex-wife, donated $7B over one year.
AI space race: These firms may be the first to test orbital data centers.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan -5.2%. Hong Kong -1.4%. China -0.7%. India -1.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.4%. Paris -2.3%. Frankfurt -1.6%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -1.3%. S&P -1.2%. Nasdaq -1.3%. Crude +13.8% to $103.47. Gold -1.3% to $5,089.50. Bitcoin -0.3% to $67,505.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 4.18%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and 3D Systems (DDD).
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.
