British defence has to move fast and prepare for war as the UK’s enemies ‘have the edge’ on us because we do not know what they are planning – the question is what to spend the money on
The biggest problem facing the British military and the people who run it is the word ‘defence,’ because it means they cannot precisely predict the oncoming threat.
Adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin probably know exactly what innovations and technologies his forces must invest in – because they are the threat. They are the side that is planning the incursions, the attacks, the grey-zone manoeuvres that fall beneath the threshold for war and even the possible employing of terrorists. Unless you subscribe to the belief that the Kremlin actually believes it is under threat Putin, and other possible enemies of the future, have that huge advantage over us.
So they have the edge by knowing what’s needed as they are ones creating that environment – leaving countries like the UK having to predict and calculate. The job of finding out what Russia and other hostile countries have in store for us falls on the intelligence agencies finding out beforehand. These hostile states include China, Iran and North Korea and any combination of the above that could emerge as a clear threat to the UK and its allies.
Former adviser to the UK government Colonel Richard Kemp says: “It is good that the UK is investing more in defence but predicting what is coming our way can be immensely difficult. “We have invested hugely in technology, drone warfare, innovation but since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia our Army has been depleted by thousands. We have seen time and time again the need for hard-edged war-fighting capability, infantry soldiers, numbers of troops on the ground to leverage those technologies.
“Ukraine has innovated brilliantly and shown the importance of drone warfare for surveillance and actual attacks, dropping grenades on a tank for example. I saw that recently someone said that Britain needs to be prepared to fight a war in three years’ time – but I believe that is wrong, we need to be able to do so now. And you need both innovation and technology – and actual troops to do the war-fighting. I do not believe one can replace the other.”
What are called ‘force multipliers” can be used to exaggerate the effect of a relatively smaller number of soldiers, such as troop carrying helicopters. Moving large numbers of fighting personnel around the battlefield or to a new and emerging battlefield is massively boosted by air transport as super-fast Chinooks. But as history shows , long ago and most recently in the end all of these wars come down to men and women in trenches shooting at each other.
Witness the high-tech drone warfare raging across Ukraine and then the hundreds of miles of trenches that have separated the two sides. For all the long-range missile systems, air-defences. Radars, satellite capability, hypersonic missiles and even nuclear capability both sides are fighting at close range. Our military procurers will be looking at future tank design, possibly expanding our air force and investing in more F-35b fighter jets, helicopters and warships.
Only on Wednesday the team led by Lord George Roberton conducting a major Strategic Defence Review, examining the UK’s military and what it needs said: “We applaud the Prime Minister’s decision to increase Defence spending to 2.5% GDP by 2027 and the ambition for 3% in the next Parliament. Our work on the Strategic Defence Review over the past six months has demonstrated how challenging the global security environment has become. Increasing Defence spending is a vital part of ensuring the nation can realise the ambition that will be set out in the Strategic Defence Review. The Review will place NATO first, strengthening our alliances and partnerships, while making Defence central both to the security, and to the economic growth and prosperity, of the United Kingdom.
“Over the coming weeks, we will continue to work with the Secretary of State for Defence to deliver the Review. We have a huge opportunity to transform our Armed Forces for this new era, so that we can make Britain secure at home and strong abroad. Yesterday’s announcement is a critical step in realising that ambition.”
One thing is for sure, the money will be gobbled up by the military as preparing for every eventuality is a bottomless pit of cost. Col Kemp adds: “All militaries have finite budgets but the reason we need to have such a large amount of money available for our forces is the wide range of things that have to be covered. Recent thinking has been that technology is key and that we can rely on innovation with cyber warfare and there is a real need for that. But you need troops, tanks, engineers, all the elements that give you a hard military edge against future enemies.
“I believe we have gone too far in the wrong direction and we need personnel on the ground to fight wars. What can give you range in a war are snipers, artillery, drones, tanks and all the other basics of warfare that project violence on the enemy efficiently. Putting all of our eggs in the basket of technology has in my view been a mistake.”
