Bargain hunting
Easing interest rates and inflation, the threat of looming tariffs, as well as a heavy dose of holiday spirits, are having Americans going shopping in record numbers this year. According to the National Retail Federation, an estimated 183.4M people across the country are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That’s up from a “previous record of 182M in 2023 and 18.1M more people than five years ago” and comes despite a holiday shopping season that “continues to pull forward.”
Bonanza begins: Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to scout for deals, with 131.7M people planning to shop, and 65% of them even going out to brick-and-mortar locations. Those numbers continue to show the resilience of the American consumer, who is forecast to send winter holiday spending to record levels during November and December. The NRF sees growth of 2.5% and 3.5% Y/Y to total $979.5B-$989B, with retailers expected to hire between 400K-500K seasonal workers to meet demand and support business operations.
The investing side of retail has also been strong this year. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (SP500-25) has soared 25% YTD, led by names like Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) and Tapestry (NYSE:TPR), while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (SP500-30) has logged a return of 18%, boosted by Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and Kellanova (NYSE:K). However, there has been a notable divergence among companies – even within the same sector – with shares of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) recently jumping to new highs after a beat-and-raise quarter and Target (NYSE:TGT) sliding 20% following its Q3 earnings report.
Black Friday schedule: The stock market will shut early at 1 PM today, bond markets will close an hour later, while metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM, respectively. Some history… Back in 1992, the major U.S. exchange operators called for a 2 PM ET close for the Friday after Thanksgiving, two hours earlier than the regular 4 PM. The following year, the NYSE and Nasdaq chose to shutter markets at 1 PM, a schedule that is currently observed.
