2025 is “tracking well ahead” of the current record holder, 2022, to come out on top as the UK’s hottest year.
This year is on track to become the UK’s hottest ever, according to the Met Office, with the meteorological bureau confirming it is set to join 2022 and 2023 at the top of the pops as Britain’s three warmest years since records began.
It might not feel it right now, but the average UK air temperature across for 2025 is on track to end up at around about 10.05C, which means it is “tracking well ahead” of the current record holder, 2022, to come out on top.
A forecast of cooler Christmas weather which will extend into 2026 makes it too close to call definitively, but it does seem likely that this year will nudge 2022 off its peak, with the current record sitting at 0.03C from 2022, according to Met Office statistics.
Four of the UK’s last five years will appear in the top five warmest years in a series from 1884 which the Met Office says is an indication of just how fast our climate is changing.
All top-10 warmest years will have occurred in the last two decades. If the record is confirmed, this will be only the second year in observational records where the UK’s annual mean temperature has exceeded 10C.
Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon said if 2025 sticks to its guns, it’ll be the second addition to the top three in a decade.
“This should come as no surprise. Over the last four decades, we have seen the UK’s annual temperature rise by around 1C. We will have to wait for the year end before confirming 2025’s final number, but at this stage it looks more likely than not that 2025 will be confirmed as the warmest year on record for the UK.
“However, it will not be long until this record is broken again. Since the start of the 21st Century a new record has been set for UK annual mean temperature no less than six times – in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2022 and now 2025 (if confirmed) – each record progressively warmer than the last.
“In terms of our climate, we are living in extraordinary times. The changes we are seeing are unprecedented in observational records back to the 19th Century.”
As Christmas is days away, the long, hot days of summer might feel like a distant fever dream. But, don’t be fooled, as both spring and summer were the hottest on record for the UK.
According to climate researcher Mark Poynting: “Each month from March to August was more than 2C above the long-term average between 1961 and 1990. And while temperatures may not have reached the peaks of 40C seen in July 2022, hot spells happened repeatedly.
He added: “Spring and summer were also marked by low rainfall. Spring was particularly dry – the UK’s sixth driest since 1836. Combined with the warm weather helping to dry out the soils, this lack of rainfall pushed large parts of the country towards drought.”
Globally, the mercury is set to rise around the world. The Met Office outlook for the global average temperature in 2026 suggests an extension of the run of years with a value above 1.4C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
The central estimate for the forecast next year is 1.46C, this is lower than the value of 1.55C recorded in 2024 – the current warmest year on record.
